Why Colorado's COVID Outlook Is Uncertain for the Rest of 2022

The latest statistics about COVID-19 from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment seem promising. But fresh modeling data from the CDPHE and the Colorado School of Public Health suggests that the outlook for the disease remains uncertain for the remainder of 2022.

Why? New COVID variants could cause the numbers to rise well beyond their current low ebb — and such mutations continue to pop up on an all-too-regular basis.

Here are the latest numbers from the state health department in major categories, updated after 4 p.m. October 12. They're juxtaposed with data from our previous COVID-19 roundup, which drew from October 5 stats:

1,661,645 cases (up 4,133 from October 5)
69.081 hospitalized (up 143 from October 5)
13,354 deaths among cases (up 20 from October 5)
14,065 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 32 from October 5)
9,834 outbreaks (up 22 from October 5)

Four takeaways:

• The new-case count of 4,133 for the week ending October 12 is down from the 4,823 recorded on October 5, and the 651 on October 11 is typical of recent daily case counts, which haven't exceeded 1,000 since September 20. These figures are less meaningful than they once were, though, because so many Coloradans confirm infections using home-test kits that aren't considered official by the CDPHE. But the modeling report also points out that wastewater concentrations indicate a slow decline in positives statewide, with some regional exceptions.

• Hospitalization figures are inconsistent but appear to be trending in the same direction. The number of people admitted with COVID grew by 143 during the seven days ending October 12, lower than the 151 for the week ending October 5. Meanwhile, a separate stat shows that 165 people received treatment over the week of October 11, a decline from 185 on October 4. The seven-day average daily admissions on October 11 landed at 36.

• Deaths among those with COVID-19 and fatalities directly caused by the disease both dipped between October 5 and October 12, going from 34 to 20 in the first category, and from 34 to 32 in the second.

• The state's seven-day-average positivity rate slid to 5.07 percent; the CDPHE believes that it's plateaued at this level, on the upper edge of the range department officials would like to maintain. Meanwhile, samples sequenced by the CDPHE during the week of September 18 were dominated by Omicron 5 (89.51 percent) and two variations on Omicron 4 (6.29 percent), with a trace (0.02098) tied to a relatively new strain, Omicron BF.7.

The seventeen new or tweaked outbreak listings shared by the CDPHE in its October 12 report represent a slight drop from the eighteen on October 5. They're dominated by health-care facilities that specialize in senior care, and all but one have experienced at least one previous outbreak.

Here are the seventeen new or tweaked outbreaks identified by the CDPHE on October 12, including information about categories, county of origin, and the date when the spread was officially recognized. The department no longer provides details regarding the overall number of infections or deaths, and whether they pertain to residents, staff members or attendees.

1. Arbor View (020414): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Jefferson County, 9/30/2022
2. Belmont Lodge Healthcare Center (020619): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Pueblo County, 10/7/2022
3. Bonaventure of Pueblo (23Y771): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Pueblo County, 10/11/2022
4. Casey's Pond Senior Living LTC (020803): September 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Routt County, 9/30/2022
5. Gardens Care Senior Living — Memorial Park Assisted Living (2303J4): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Weld County, 10/6/2022
6. Good Samaritan Society — Fort Collins Village (020314): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Larimer County, 10/4/2022
7. Grace Pointe Continuing Care Senior Campus Assisted Living (23T749): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Weld County, 10/7/2022
8. Grant House RTF (2304W2): September 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 10/4/2022
9. Hilltop Life Adjustment Program (23Q649): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Mesa County, 9/26/2022
10. Julia Temple Healthcare Center (020418): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Arapahoe County, 10/11/2022
11. Lamar Estates, LLC (020201): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Prowers County, 9/28/2022
12. MacKenzie Place Fort Collins (23Z789): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Larimer County, 10/4/2022
13. North Shore Health & Rehab Facility (020331): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Larimer County, 10/7/2022
14. Open Arms Assisted Living Suite B (235HXR), Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 9/23/2022
15. Rosemark at Mayfair Park (23E998): September 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 9/28/2022
16. The Fountains of Hilltop (2311QA): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Mesa County, 9/26/2022
17. The Lennox Guest Home (230425): September 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 9/16/2022

The modeling update indicates that declines like those registered over the past week aren't guaranteed, According to the CDPHE, "simulations show hospital demand through the end of 2022 may depend on the variants that dominate and continued statewide uptake of the new Omicron vaccine," whose use is rising, but very slowly.

This week, the federal government approved the Omicron vaccine for children as young as five, but this change is not yet reflected on the state's vaccine-data dashboard, which just added stats for that particular booster. As of today, October 13, 8.5 percent of eligible Coloradans have gotten the shot — around double the national average, but still much lower than officials would prefer. The demographic with which the booster has been most popular include individuals age 65 and older; 18.9 percent of them have rolled up their sleeve thus far. But only 3.9 percent of those between the ages twelve and seventeen have done likewise.

Right now, the CDPHE is closely monitoring what it refers to as "several emerging variants.... The BF.1 variant has greater growth potential and increased immune escape compared to the currently dominant BA.5 variant. BQ.1 has recently emerged from BA.5 and has potentially concerning mutations, but its potential growth advantage and immune escape are yet unknown."

As state epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy sums up the analysis: "This latest modeling report shows multiple potential scenarios and highlights the unpredictability of our upcoming fall and winter respiratory virus season. The best thing Coloradans can do right now to protect themselves is to get both a flu vaccine and COVID-19 vaccine as soon as possible and get an Omicron dose when they are eligible."