New COVID Variants' Week-Over-Week Growth in Colorado

Two new variants of COVID-19 have cropped up in Colorado — and over the past week, their appearances have grown substantially, with one more than doubling. Meanwhile, case counts, outbreaks and deaths from the disease tracked by the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment remain stubbornly steady. More than two-and-a-half years into the pandemic, infections are still killing an average of more than four Coloradans each day.

Here are the numbers from the state health department in major categories from October 26. They're juxtaposed with data from our previous COVID-19 roundup, which drew from October 19 stats:

1,671,397 cases (up 5,160 from October 19)
69,421 hospitalized (up 118 from October 19)
13,402 deaths among cases (up 24 from October 19)
14,125 deaths due to COVID-19 (up 32 from October 19)
9,933 outbreaks (up 81 from October 19)

Four takeaways:

• The new-case count of 5,160 is nearly 10 percent higher than the 4,682 recorded on October 19, and the 832 on October 25 was the highest of the week. Both figures qualify as a surprise, since many Coloradans confirm infections using home-test kits that aren't considered official by the CDPHE.

• Hospitalization figures continue to vacillate. The raw numbers jumped from 143 for the week ending October 12 to 222 on October 19 — but this past week they dropped, landing at 114 on October 26. But the total of 184 patients receiving care during the week of October 25 was up slightly from 179 the week ending October 18. And the seven-day average for daily admissions hit fifty on October 25, compared to 38 a week earlier.

• Fatality stats continue to linger in a range that's become familiar over the past few months. Deaths among cases registered at 24 on October 26, the same amount as on October 19, and deaths attributed to COVID-19 edged up from 28 last week to 32, or 4.57 per day.

• On October 26, the state's seven-day-average positivity rate leaped to 8.93 percent — a substantial hike from the 6.18 percent figure on October 19 and well above the 5 percent level the CDPHE prefers not to pass. The samples sequenced by the state health department for the week of October 2, the most recent available, show the dominance of Omicron BA.5 slowly waning, dropping from 80.17 percent of cases to 76.3 percent over seven days, while two new variants, BF.7 and BQ.1, gain strength. Last week they came in at 2.59 percent apiece. This week, BF.7 was calculated at 5.78 percent, while BQ.1 was 4.6 percent.

BF.7 was identified over recent weeks in China's Mongolia region and has since popped up in India, Europe and the United States; it's extremely transmissible and is believed to cause an infection with a lower viral load than previous variants. BQ.1 and the related BQ.1.1, which has not yet been identified in Colorado, are spinoffs from Omicron BA.5 that have drawn the attention of the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Dr. Anthony Fauci. In an interview with CBS News, he said, "When you get variants like that, you look at what their rate of increase is as a relative proportion of the variants, and this has a pretty troublesome doubling time."

New or tweaked outbreaks listed by the CDPHE doubled from October 12 to October 19, going from seventeen to 34 — and on October 26, another 34 were added to the roster. They're dominated by health-care facilities that specialize in senior care, and all of them have experienced at least one previous outbreak.

Here are the 34 new or tweaked outbreaks identified by the CDPHE on October 26, including information about categories, county of origin, and the date when the spread was officially recognized. The department no longer provides details regarding the overall number of infections or deaths, or whether they pertain to residents, staff members or attendees.

1. Abundant Blessings and Care-Marion Way (23V339): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Arapahoe County, 10/21/2022
2. ARA at Lander Circle (23T747): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, El Paso County, 10/14/2022
3. Balfour at Littleton (23M124): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 10/21/2022
4. Berthoud Care and Rehabilitation (020388): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Larimer County, 10/19/2022
5. Center at Rock Creek LLC (02S685): September 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Larimer County, 9/23/2022
6. Centre Avenue Health and Rehab (02R209): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Larimer County, 10/14/2022
7. Columbine West Health & Rehab Facility (020335): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Larimer County, 10/17/2022
8. Dayspring Villa (2304IX): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Denver County, 10/21/2022
9. Delta Correctional Center: October 2022, State Prison, Delta County, 10/24/2022
10. Eben Ezer Lutheran Care Center (020170): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Morgan County, 10/21/2022
11. El Paso County Criminal Justice Center: October 2022, Jail, El Paso County, 10/24/2022
12. Forest Street Compassionate Care Center (02H516): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Denver County, 10/20/2022
13. Harmony Home — Fort Morgan I (2301CF): September 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Morgan County, 10/4/2022
14. Holly Nursing Care Center (020237): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Prowers County, 10/20/2022
15. Keystone Place at Legacy Ridge Assisted Living (23H523): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Adams County, 10/24/2022
16. Lakeview Commons LLC (2303BK): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Larimer County, 10/17/2022
17. Life Care Center of Longmont (020316): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Boulder County, 10/21/2022
18. Morningstar Assisted Living of Littleton (23N258): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 10/24/2022
19. Neurorestorative Colorado (02E996): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Jefferson County, 10/17/2022
20. Nightingale Suites (2304F8): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 10/20/2022
21. Olson Avenue (05U328): October 2022, Healthcare, RCFDD Group Home, Mesa County, 10/21/2022
22. Pelican Pointe Health & Rehabilitation Center (020332): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Weld County, 10/12/2022
23. Point of the Pines Gardens Assisted Living (23B948): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, El Paso County, 10/11/2022
24. Promedica Skilled Nursing and Rehabilitation — Denver (020476): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Denver County, 10/19/2022
25. Pueblo Regional Center — House C (0506Z9): October 2022, Healthcare, Intermediate Care, Pueblo County, 10/25/2022
26. Ralston Creek Neighborhood (23Q656): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 10/25/2022
27. Serenity House Assisted Living Hunters Hill (23G942): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Arapahoe County, 10/25/2022
28. Serenity House Assisted Living IX (23D978): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Arapahoe County, 10/17/2022
29. Sprawka Residential Center (050104): October 2022, Healthcare, RCFDD Group Home, Logan County, 10/17/2022
30. St. Andrews Village (23G126): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Arapahoe County, 10/21/2022
31. The Gardens (020533): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, El Paso County, 10/21/2022
32. The Manor on Marston Lake — 2 (23N613): October 2022, Healthcare, Assisted Living, Jefferson County, 10/4/2022
33. The Villas at Sunny Acres Skilled Nursing (020458): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Adams County, 10/7/2022
34. Vista Grande Inn (021213): October 2022, Healthcare, Nursing Facility, Montezuma County, 10/12/2022